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    1.  首頁 >> 理論經濟學 >> 期刊速覽
      [期刊速覽]《國際經濟評論》2019年第4期(總第142期)
      2019年09月04日 21:08 來源:中國社會科學網 作者:《國際經濟評論》編輯部 字號

      內容摘要:

      關鍵詞:

      作者簡介:

        ·目錄·

        1.楊盼盼 常殊昱 熊愛宗:危機后全球失衡的進展與國際協調思路

        2.鄒靜嫻 申廣軍:金融危機后“長期停滯”假說的提出與爭論

        3.熊婉婷 常殊昱 肖立晟:IMF債務可持續性框架:主要內容、問題及啟示

        4.繆延亮 譚語嫣:從此岸到彼岸:人民幣匯率如何實現清潔浮動?

        5.孔元:身份政治與世界秩序的演變

        6.蘇慶義:中國是否應該加入CPTPP?

        7.管濤 王霄彤:中國服務(旅游)貿易逆差擴大:是資本外逃還是經濟再平衡?

        8.王璐瑤 葛順奇:投資便利化國際趨勢與中國的實踐

        智庫觀察

       

        ·擴展目錄·

       

        1.楊盼盼 常殊昱 熊愛宗:危機后全球失衡的進展與國際協調思路

        【內容提要】本文首先梳理了危機后全球失衡的新進展,全球失衡整體大幅緩解,中國為危機后全球經濟再平衡做出了重要貢獻,主要發達失衡國的調整則相對有限。然而,在全球失衡漸趨緩和的同時,失衡的政策協調壓力卻在上升,全球失衡再度成為2019年G20的核心議題。本文指出,當下政策討論中采取的經常賬戶合意值的外部失衡評議方法存在諸多問題,針對各國的失衡評估報告也存在不一致。繼而,全球失衡的政策協調方式應有所轉變,需統合流量失衡和存量失衡的相互作用機制,促進各國有序協調,防范因外部失衡無序下降或波動以及因外部失衡過度調整帶來的全球經濟、貿易和金融風險。

        【關鍵詞】全球失衡 外部失衡評估法 流量失衡 存量失衡 政策協調

        Global Rebalancing and International Coordination in the Post-Crisis Era

        Yang Panpan, Chang Shuyu and Xiong Aizong

          This article reviews the latest progress in easing global imbalances in the post-crisis era. There has been significant decline in aggregated imbalance. China has made significant contribution to global rebalancing while the developed countries have failed to substantially resolve their imbalance problems. As the global imbalance has moderated, however, the coordination pressure has intensified. Global imbalance has once again come to the center stage at this year’s G20 meeting. This article pointed out several problems regarding the External Balance Approach (EBA), which estimates a country’s Current Account Norm, and the external reports on concerned countries have showed some inconsistencies. To improve the global imbalance policy coordination, it is necessary to incorporate the management of stock and flow imbalance, promote orderly coordination among different countries, and avoid posing risks to global economic growth, trade and finance.

        2.鄒靜嫻 申廣軍:金融危機后“長期停滯”假說的提出與爭論

        【內容提要】2008年金融危機爆發后,全球經濟復蘇之緩、之難都遠超預期。在此背景下,美國前財政部長薩默斯重提“長期停滯”假說。在“長期停滯”假說中,均衡實際利率為負是核心,總需求不足是癥結,財政刺激政策是藥方。對于此番經濟表現出的長期疲弱,學術界還有許多不同觀點,如:超級債務周期、全球儲蓄過剩、流動性陷阱等,爭論的焦點主要集中于對原因的總結、對債務問題的認識以及對未來均衡實際利率走勢的判斷上。本文的一大目標就是梳理當前有關的學術爭論:爭論什么,為何爭論,有何依據?厘清這些問題可為下一步凝聚共識、政策協調奠定基礎。

        【關鍵詞】長期停滯 實際利率 債務 增長

        Secular Stagnation in the Post-Crisis Era

        Zou Jingxian and Shen Guangjun

          Against the backdrop of slower-and harder-than-expected global economic recovery in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, former US Secretary of Treasury Larry Summers re-proposed the hypothesis of secular stagnation. The hypothesis is characterized by negative natural interest rate, with the problem ascribed to the demand side, and the solution goes for fiscal stimulus. As for the prolonged sluggish economic performance, the academic circle has come with many other views, like debt super-cycle, global saving glut and liquidity trap, with disagreements mainly focused on the cause of the recession, the perceptions of debt and estimation of future interest rates. This article aims to summarize the related debates, i.e., what the debates are about and why researchers have failed to reach an agreement. The clarification of those debates can lay a foundation for future consensus and policy coordination.

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      姓名:《國際經濟評論》編輯部 工作單位:

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